Abstract

Fluctuations of exchange rate against Rupiah to U.S Dollar which unstable are influenced the domestic and foreign's economic conditions. Macroeconomic conditions in the two countries both Indonesia and United States can make the exchange rate depreciate or appreciate. The purpose of this research is to acknowledge the difference impact macro variables in both countries Indonesia and the United States against the value on rupiah to US Dollar. Dynamic model is applied in this research that is Partial Adjustment Model (PAM). This model is considered to existing inertia variable that is expectation of exchange rate influence by the value of exchange rate that occurred previously. There are two analysis is descriptive analysis and causal analysis. Causal is using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. OLS estimation of PAM shows all independent variable have positive impact to the exchange rate expectation besides difference Export variable, in addition the difference of the interest rate variable can't influence the exchange rate significantly on important of the exchange rate expectation. In conclusion, the interest rate policy is considered to influence the rupiah exchange rate if two countries do not change the interest rate

simultaneously and other macro policy variables must bring into line.

Keywords: Difference macro variables, Partial Adjustment Model (PAM), Causal Analysis, Exchange Rate